Sunday 26 June 2016

REAL TROUBLE AHEAD FOR THE POUND



GBP/USD FX  (Monthly chart above) ... Fridays low wasn't an accident .. 1.3228 is the key the next 30 points in this cross .

The total surprise nature of the Brexit vote again is critical here ... at 11pm on referendum day we printed a yearly high in GBPUSD ..The remain vote was albeit nailed on and you would have had a very hard job for making a case to be Short the pound .. hence the move obviously. This is a notoriously volatile cross with a love of over extension .. 2 was always seen as physcological level that was unsustainable so it spent the best part of 2007 pushing 2.10 before collapsing at the first hint of the 2008 crisis ... We have a much lower level to fall from today and with sparce liquidity, a market that is positioned very badly and a hamstrung central bank i fear we may see a serious over extension again but this time to the downside ... Clearly Fridays low 1.3228 is the key .. if we see a significant break and hold through that level the unthinkable becomes thinkable ... Parity against the Dollar !!    GAN.






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